The MEGALIST of

The Power Rankings MEGALIST

YOUR ONE SPOT STOP for ALL NFL POWER RANKINGS!

Note that picks above are my PERSONAL picks (not all are posted).
I should have learned by now to stick with the Megalist, but I don't (and never pick against my team :)
History of Megalist Picks Since Week 7
W7: 10-4. W8: 13-0. W9: 12-2. W10: 5-9 (Upset Week). W11: 13-3. W12: 11-5. W13: 11-5.
W14: 15-1. W15: 9-7 (Ouch). W16: 11-5. W17: 9-7 (Typical for last week of season)
Don't go to Vegas with these :)

Megalist Explained: Thumper's Megalist Power Rankings system is a summary of the best known Power Rankings (AKA, THE Twelve BIG ONES) from major sports writers around the country. A link to each of these systems is provided directly below. An average rank is computed by totaling each vote for each team. Refer to the Megalist Breakdown table below. Statistically speaking, using this diverse and large sample of rankings should help remove bias.

The data for the Megalist is also available here ALL 32 TEAMS RANKED in Excel Format. My old algorithm only used top 5 votes in a weighed system (only included teams with top 5 votes). The table still displays how many top five votes each team receives and weights them (5 pts for a #1, 4 for a #2, and so on), but no adjustments are made to the whole number rankings. Each teams strength of schedule is also listed, but again, I do not make adjustments to the rankings or average.

MEGALIST AWARD: Each year I award the MEGALIST AWARD to the writer that was CONSISTENTLY best against the Megalist average. This year COLDHARDFOOTBALLFACTS.com earns this award handily. Except for one week, from week 7 on, CHF was #1 in both against the average, and exact same rank compared to the Megalist. In the final rankings, CHF had 20 rankings EXACTLY the same as the Megalist, and only a 26.9 total variance from the average!

CBS (1/1, Auto Updates Tue AM)	Saragin: USA TODAY (S) (1/1, Auto Updates Mon PM)	FOX (1/1, Auto Updates Tue AM)	ESPN (1/1, Change week # in URL, Tue AM/Noon)
NFL (12/26, See Carucci List, or Search, Tue AM)	Aikman Efficiency Rating: AIKMAN (A) (1/1, Auto Updates) - Explanation of System	ColdHardFootballFacts (1/1, Auto Updates, Tue PM)	Dr. Z: SI (1/2, See Dr. Z's Article List, Wed AM)
LOOKING FOR A NEW, CONSISTENT RANKING FROM A POPULAR WRITER (About.com not updating reliably)	DVOA: FootballOutsiders (D) (12/31, Auto Updates) DVOA Breakdown. DVOA Explanation.	Covers (C) (12/25, Auto Updates TUE PM)	NBC (1/1, Auto Updates Tue AM)

Visit the MEGALIST data table (Excel Format). Use the SORT function in Excel and run your own queries for AFC, NFC, Division, Record, etc. Find out who is strongest according to Power Rankings. Which are the top 6 AFC teams? Top NFC? Will these be your playoff teams? ...or will NFL Tie Breaking procedures make it different? Sort by RANKING system and compare to the norm. What biases do you see? What team characteristics does DVOA favor? You'll see if systems are following stats or feelings. Take your team's highest ranking in a system and use that system to talk your trash :) This spreadsheet will also show you GAPS in team quality. Compare the Avg and # Rank between teams. If they have a signigicant point difference in average, but in the linear ranking, they are only 1 apart, you could separate them into tiers showing the quality of the teams. Or, see if there are any exact ties, and other small differences between teams, meaning they are essentially equal in terms of Power Rankings. Try it out! It's fun!

Using 12 systems, each rank only effects the entire average by 1/12 (.083). So, even when one homer of a writer decides to rank a team 10 spots higher than the average, it would not change their AVG ranking by even a full point. From week to week, there will be more accurate, and smaller changes in ranking positions because of this (instead of having a team go up some ridiculous amount just because of one performance). By the time the last couple rankings come in, the list basically does not change. It should be noted also, that small differences in the rankings should be considered negligible, as a certain margin of error should always be present in a statistical system. That margin of error is impossible to determine exactly, but I would say within +/- 3 in the core of the rankings, and +/- 2 at the extremes.

2007 "Running" Strength of Schedule:At the beginning of the year, each team's schedule is given a strength of schedule value. This value is determined by taking the scheduled opponents' records from 2006 (wins and losses) and dividing the wins by total games (wins/256). I wanted to have quick access to a "running" SOS because it seems more useful. I have never seen a stat like this readily available online, so here it is! This is a Megalist EXCLUSIVE STAT!

The Chargers/Patriots game is gonna be a doozy. As much as everyone is saying Pats for sure, hold onto your hats. Bolts by 20.
I can't count the Giants out. I can't give it to Green Bay. Again, this could be a doozy. The Giants have been disruptive on defense, and have made quick scores when needed on offense. Giants by 4.

Here are Brady's final 2007 regular season stats. What records did he break? Congrats on the new TD record! Brady BLASTED his normal regular season stats. Amazing.

No change in my personal top 5: 1) Patriots 2) Colts 3) Cowboys and Jaguars 5) Chargers and Green Bay